Sunday, February 24, 2013

The post-industrial future is nigh

View the article here.

For a long time China has generated a large portion of its GDP from industrial and manufacturing sectors. In fact, in 2005 industry as a percentage of its GDP was roughly 18 percentage points above the global norm. Conversely, its service sector as a percentage of GDP was almost 8 percentage points below the global norm. This is largely due to the fact that China has kept its currency artificially weak and has suppressed labor rights in order to keep wage rates low, which has led to export industries being very profitable.

However, this year might mark the first time that its service sector will surpass its industrial sector. In 2012 industrial sectors made up 45.3% of China's GDP compared to service sectors which made up 44.6%. Over the past 20 years service sectors have been steadily increasing as a percentage of GDP while industrial ones have remained relatively the same.

The creation of more jobs in the service sector has several implications. First, the Chinese market might be shifting more towards a consumption-based market, which doesn't automatically involve exporting less but could potentially lead there. Second, service sector jobs are often more human capital-intensive. This could mean better labor rights and higher wages.

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