Monday, October 25, 2010
China's succession: The next emperor
According to The Economist, China is beginning the transition to a new leader in the "twin roles of party chief and president", Mr. Xi Jinping. The article offers that the world should be nervous about this transition for two reasons: first due to the relatively "unknown character" of Mr. Xi as well as the "brittle nature of a regime that is far less monolithic and assured than many foreigners believe." If all goes according to plan Mr. Xi will take over from current President and party chief, Hu Jintao, in 2o12 with the two year transition as a test. However, it is mostly the immensity of the task that should worry foreigners, with new signs of disagreement on where both economic and political priorities should lie. The article argues that there needs to be more substantial economic growth with "wage-earners getting a bigger share of the national income", but these changes would not come easy and would face resistance from many state-owned enterprises. However, China's economic gains could be "jeopardized by a failure to loosen the party's hold" as public discontent towards the government grows. Even though this would be beneficial for China it is unlikely that Mr. Xi will adopt the policies. The article ends by saying, "Too many Westerners, including those urging trade sanctions over the yuan, assume that they are dealing with a self-confident, rational power that has come of age. Think instead of a paranoid, introspective imperial court, already struggling to keep up with its subjects and now embarking on a slightly awkward succession—and you may be less disappointed."
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
I'm actually a bit surprised at the Economist - usually they are far more factual and less fear-mongering than this would seem to indicate. The unknown character of Xi Jinping is not reason to be nervous - merely for caution. It perhaps an excellent reason to attempt to get to known him and the new regime better. Clearly China is not monolithic, as noted, but a transition could actually push China closer to liberalization rather than away from it. Assumptions that Mr. Xi would "fail to loosen the party's hold" are entirely conjecture. We should first attempt to gather neutral information, then proceed in a rational manner.
totally agree, I found the tone of the article is very subjective and somewhat offensive to the Chinese. The Economist shows its skewed-up views every time when it publishes an article about China. You cannot be taken seriously when you equate the Chinese succession to that of North Korea's. China's monarchy has far gone and ironically, we have the Bush family succeeded each other to become the president.
The problem with the Chinese leaders in choosing their successors is that their first priority is to preserve the primacy of the current elite, as opposed to some alternative elite. The choice is inevitably conservative, because conservation of the status quo ante is such a high priority for those already on top. To expect China's new leader to be an aggressive reformer would be to expect the CPC to act against its own interests. China is relying on the CPC being sufficiently enlightened and farsighted to bring in reform for its indirect benefit, namely that reform is necessary for continued growth, and continued growth is necessary to keep the CPC elite in power.
After all, no matter who's guiding China, the country has been doing much better than all expected and America is the opposite. This article shares a very shallow point of view
Post a Comment