Lowest Hiring Since 2009

 The job market didn’t change much in September, with unemployment holding steady at 4.34%. Layoffs stayed about the same, but hiring slowed down a bit, showing that companies are pulling back. A report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said layoff announcements actually dropped last month, but overall job cuts this year are already higher than all of last year. At the same time, hiring plans have fallen hard, down more than half from last year and at their lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis. With the government shutdown delaying official reports, people are turning to other sources to figure out what’s really happening in the job market.

Cox, J. (2025, October 2). Report shows hiring at lowest since 2009 as economists turn to alternative data during shutdown blackout. CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/report-shows-hiring-at-lowest-since-2009-as-economists-turn-to-alternative-data-during-shutdown-blackout.html

U.S. Latino Immigrants generate $1.6 trillion in GDP, report says

         A report from the Latino Donor Collaborative, highlighted the role that Latinos play in the U.S. economy. Latinos alone generated $1.6 trillion in GDP , contributing to an overall purchasing power for U.S. Latinos of $4.1 trillion. This data alone would make the Latino economy be the fifth-largest in the world if they were their own country. Dennis Hoffman, said his simulation he did will predict that total GDP could decline by $2.3 trillion or 7.7%. This article attributes this to higher workforce participation, growing entrepreneurship, and rising consumer spending compared to the rest of the nation. 

        California's GDP alone is on track to surpass the $1 trillion mark within the next few years. Along with that Modelo has taken budweiser to become America's No. 1 selling beer brand by capturing 50% of the Latino consumer market before being taken over this week by Michelob Ultra. Along with Modelo other companies have seen significant use like T-Mobile, Dr. Pepper and Kia. Along with Latinos spending much more on our economy baby boomers spending has dropped by 4% and Latinos are seemingly picking up that slack. While this data does show reason for concern it brings up the question whether what trump is doing is right or not for a future mass deportation. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/24/us-latino-immigrants-gdp-report-says.html

The Impact of Truck, Furniture, and Pharmaceutical Tariffs on the American Economy

The increased import duties, targeting heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, furniture, and pharmaceuticals, were announced by former President Donald Trump and are scheduled to take effect on October 1. There is a catch, however: if businesses are actively constructing plants in the United States, they can avoid the duties, which range from 25% to 100%.

The action aligns with Trump's broader initiative to "reshore" manufacturing. Home products and trucks are examples of classic blue-collar businesses, but pharmaceuticals are essential for both national security and the economy. The administration presents tariffs as a source of income and as a means of negotiating power.

Potential Impacts on the Economy

• Increased Prices: Almost invariably, import expenses are passed on to customers. Pharmaceutical tariffs, however limited in certain trade agreements, run the risk of driving up the cost of medications, and furniture and cabinets may become more costly.

• Supply Chain Changes: While some businesses might expedite their U.S. investments, others will have to deal with expensive delays and interruptions.

• Trade Tensions: It is anticipated that Europe and its allies will resist, possibly retaliating or contesting the sanctions legally.

• Uncertainty: Companies don't like rules that change. Long-term investment is deterred by unpredictable tariffs, particularly in sectors with international supply chains.

These tariffs continue a trend that involves focusing on particular industries, imposing severe fines, and establishing exceptions for American investment. They run the risk of escalating inflation, strained alliances, and unsettled markets, even though they might boost some domestic production.

Trump's tariff plan focuses more on transforming trade policy into an instrument for industrial strategy than it does on short-term economic concerns. Higher prices, strained trade relations, and corporate uncertainty are the costs of the gamble, though.

Link

Pro-EU Party wins election in Moldova

Historically, Moldova was one of Russia's allies until the invasion of Ukraine, which sparked a lot of economic instability within the country. It had specifically led to both energy shocks and higher inflation, while also being met with a substantial decline in population due to migration and political divisions.

A decision was made in Moldova whether to align with the European Union or Russia, and the Moldovans chose the pro EU party. The pro-Russian party has decided to protest the results and contest them within their supreme court. 

The pro EU party had won just over 50% of the votes, whereas the pro-Russia party won 24.3% of the votes. The pro EU party had been accusing Russia of interference within the election, opposed to the pro-Russian claims of western interference within Moldova's election.

This is a surprising turn of events, as due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they are losing countries that had been open to Russian markets and their less economically dependent allies. Finland and Sweden were both intimidated by Russia's sudden invasion of a neutral country, and tied themselves to NATO. This shows a growing trend among countries that they are less likely to either trust or want to align themselves to Russia.

"This vote for pro-European parties and for the majority in the parliament for pro-European parties is showing that the direction is clear: Moldovan people want peace, development under the European Union family... The EU announced the start of accession talks with Moldova in December 2023, and negotiations officially began in June 2024."

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-ruling-pro-eu-party-wins-election/live-74163154 

Consumers Keep Spending Despite Inflation

August brought some mixed signals for the U.S. economy. Consumer spending was up 0.6%, which shows people are still willing to spend, and personal income rose slightly too. But the job market is losing steam—only 22,000 jobs were added, and unemployment stayed at 4.3%.

At the same time, inflation hasn’t cooled enough. The Fed’s PCE index rose 2.7% compared to last year, which keeps pressure on policymakers. The challenge is pretty clear: cut rates to help jobs, or keep rates high to get prices under control. If the balance tips the wrong way, we could end up with stagflation—slow growth and sticky inflation at the same time.

Sources:

• BEA – August 2025 Personal Income & Outlays
• Reuters – U.S. PCE Inflation Matches Expectations

Trump again places heavy tariffs

 

    President Donald Trump recently announced a sweeping expansion of tariffs, set to take effect on October 1st, in what he describes as an effort to reduce the federal budget deficit while boosting domestic manufacturing. The new measures include a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical drugs, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks. While the administration used Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to justify tariffs on pharmaceuticals and trucks, citing national security concerns, the inclusion of furniture and cabinetry stretches the definition further. Trump has framed these tariffs under “National Security and other reasons,” a justification that may face serious legal challenges as the Supreme Court prepares to hear a case in November about the limits of presidential tariff authority.

    The pharmaceutical tariffs stand out as the most consequential. In 2024 alone, the United States imported nearly $233 billion in pharmaceutical and medicinal products. A 100% tariff could, in practice, double the cost of many medicines, raising concerns that patients may be forced to ration or skip essential treatments. This also risks increasing expenses for programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The administration did leave an important exemption, companies currently building or breaking ground on U.S. production facilities will not be subject to the new tax. That clause has already influenced industry behavior, with major pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson announcing new domestic investments earlier this year.

Containers are piled upon a cargo terminal in Frankfurt, Germany, on Sept. 9, 2025.Michael Probst/AP

    Economically, the picture is less optimistic. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs are responsible for “most or all” of the inflation seen this year, even as Trump continues to insist that “there’s no inflation” and that the country is experiencing “unbelievable success.” In reality, the consumer price index has climbed 2.9% over the past 12 months, signaling real cost increases for households. At the same time, the jobs data undermine the idea that tariffs are driving domestic growth. Since the first round of broad tariffs went into effect in April, manufacturers have cut 42,000 jobs, while builders have eliminated 8,000 positions. The 50% tariff on cabinetry and vanities could make the housing market even worse, where high mortgage rates and tight supply already leave many potential buyers priced out.

    Overall, the expansion of tariffs highlights the tension between Trump’s political rhetoric and the economic realities on the ground. While the administration tries to frame tariffs as tools of independence and national security, the immediate impacts have been higher costs, limited job growth, and heightened uncertainty. Whether these policies produce more issues or success, they represent one of the most defining and controversial aspects of Trump’s economic strategy.

The resilient stock market may be keeping the economy out of a recession. Why that’s a bad thing.

    The economic data this week has presented a brighter picture compared to recent trends. The consumer spending this past August was stronger than expected along with the income. Companies and households have continued to spend more while inflation has been soft. Housing also showed signs of life. GDP growth has been revising upward. Stock markets like Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 have increased due to AI, industrial strength and corporate profits.  The stock market strength is keeping the United States economy out of a recession by boosting the consumer spending. Wealthy households are playing a major role into all of this. The large stockholders are also spending more. 

    Some could see this as a bad thing. A large majority of the spending is coming from wealthier households because there stock portfolios are booming. According to the University of Michigan survey, the consumer sentiment has heavily decreased since January, it hurts those that have little or no stock exposure. There is a major risk with all that is going on. If the stock market was to fall, the spending could decrease because job growth is very weak. This could leave the economy vulnerable.  

Chanden Lee: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Fed Chair Powell says rising inflation and slow hiring pose 'challenging situation'

 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a delicate balancing act for the Fed as the U.S economy is facing both a raise in inflation and a slowdown in hiring. Powell described the situation as 'challenging" for central bankers attempting to steer the economy through this period of uncertainty. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year, aiming to support employment while battling inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has indicated additional quarter point cuts that may come later in the year. Despite this, Powell cautioned that the prices remain uncertain and that the risks are "two-sided". 

The Fed's decision followed a push by President Trump to influence the central banks, which includes efforts to remove board members and pressure for larger rate cuts. Economists warn that the U.S economy may be experiencing stagflation, with slow hiring and raising inflation creating a tricky economy. Powell's remarks underscore the thin ice that policy makers tread upon in today's economic landscape.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-chair-powell-rising-inflation-slow-hiring-pose/story?id=125857000 

Gold Remains at Near Record Levels

Gold prices increased for the sixth straight week, and are holding near a record high price of $3,773 an ounce. Investors and traders have pushed money into the precious metal as crucial US Jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be put on hold amidst a potential government shutdown on October 1st. If the jobs, and payroll data is not released this may force the Federal Reserve into an unclear position to cut rates, or to hold as they meet in October. 

Investors are also moving money to gold as Federal Reserve independence is becoming increasingly scrutinized and under fire. Barclays strategists have claimed that gold remains a good "value-hedge" to the US Dollar and Treasuries as more uncertainty is expected in the coming months. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-29/gold-holds-near-record-as-traders-weigh-us-shutdown-fed-rates?srnd=homepage-americas 

Gold and Other Commodities are Key to Hedging Potential Market Risks

Gold and other commodities are key to protecting portfolio's from unexpected risks such as inflation and supply shocks Goldman Sachs explains. Commodities outperformed in 2022 when the energy crisis kept equity-bond portfolios struggling. Goldman Sachs analysis shows that in a full year that had stocks and bonds showing negative returns, either gold or commodities had the exact opposite with a positive showing.

Preparing for the next couple year, commodities are expected to gain volume in their role with government using resources as leverage with the addition of supply chains tightening. By 2030 the U.S. is projected to supply a third of Global liquified natural gas exports, while China controls 90 plus percentage of rare earth refining. Energy persists as the most inflation sensitive hedge,  but other industrial metals and rare earths are close seconds reinstating why commodities are an important inclusion for portfolio diversification.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-investors-should-hedge-with-gold-and-other-commodities

Iranians Brace for Economic Impact of New U.N. Sanctions

 This past Saturday, the United Nations Security Council reimposed sanctions on Iran over the status of its nuclear program and lack of diplomatic cooperation. Such treaties and sanctions have existed for the past twenty years and were due to be up in 2025; this paired with the recent expansive enrichment of their uranium stock have created on-going global headlines. This news provides even more detrimental news for the Iranian people amid already destitute economic situations. Energy and water supply is extremely low, inflation is rising over 40%, unemployment is skyrocketing, and their currency is being devalued.

These sanctions and their consequences showcase the potential impacts of external forces such as foreign politics on the health of an economic system. The sanctions effect trade liberalization for Iran which can be directly seen through the devaluation of their currency and spiking inflation. Iran's mixed economy has facets of central planning by the government particularly over their oil industry. These externalities are accentuating the inefficiencies of the the command economy system. For instance, the government is currently rationing water and power usage throughout the nation. All in all, this situation highlights how outside factors effect the health of an economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/27/world/middleeast/sanctions-iran-economy-snapback.html

Economic Growth Comes in Stronger in the Second Quarter

The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the U.S. economy expanded greater than they had predicted for the second quarter. GDP increased at 3.8% which was predicted to be 3.3% for the second quarter. This is largely driven by an increase in consumer spending. The tariffs that have been implemented have boosted domestic demand and a reduction in imports. Imports saw a major drop, which is the reason for a domestic demand increase. In the third quarter, it is being predicted that there could be growth from trades. 

While the gain follows a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter, many analysts stay to still be cautious with investments given the trade volatility. The cooling of the labor market is another risk that could affect the future GDP. Many believe that a soft landing is still possible, given the cut in interest rates, but it all depends on the inflation rate. 

 https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/articles/economic-growth-comes-in-stronger-in-the-second-quarter 

Europe Markets European pharma stocks flat after Trump slaps 100% tariffs on medicine imports

    Despite the latest trade policy from the White House, European stocks finished higher Friday. The Stoxx 600 index rose 0.8% with the majority of major country benchmarks in green. However, pharmaceutical stocks were the exception to this. The sector traded nervously after Trump confirmed that the US will apply a 100% tariff on imported medicines starting on October 1st. He added that companies breaking ground on U.S. factories would be spared from the measure. Shares of Novo Nordisk, Zealand Pharma, and Orion all fell on the news. Despite this, firms could avoid a major hit if they continue with US-based production. 

    Trump also stated that heavy trucks imported into the US will face a 25% tariff starting next month. This adds another level of uncertainty into the current markets and global trade as a whole. In response, the EU stated that it may slap tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese steel to show Trump that it can respond with something that will affect America. Overall, while Europe’s markets closed broadly higher, the day’s moves reflected investors trying to balance optimism with a new batch of tariff battles and effects on certain sectors. 

Article: Europe markets Sept. 26: Trump's 100% pharma tariffs, FTSE 100