Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for global Electric Vehicle adoption. They project that EVs will account for 25% of global sales by 2030 which is down from 28%, and they additionally project that by 2040 EVs will account for 52% which is down from 59%. The main two reasons of this slowdown are the early expiration of EV tax credits in the US, and also regulatory changes in the U.S. and Europe, including relaxed fuel economy standards. However, in China, the strong demand keeps its forecast unchanged. EV sales are continuing to rise their while in North America and Europe EV momentum has slowed.
On the other hand hybrid vehicles are expected to have a gain in market share. Goldman Sachs Research sees hybrid vehicles making a push as they project up to 12% of global sales by 2030 and 9% by 2040 both more than what they were projected in earlier forecasts. This shift benefit your traditional automakers, who can be efficient in producing a mix between hybrids and EVs. As a result of this, profit margins are projected to rise by up to 3 percentage points, which would be around 20 billion dollars in pre-tax earnings.
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/hybrid-adoption-to-rise-as-electric-vehicle-momentum-slows
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ReplyDeleteWow Rowan, enlightening stuff! I know that I personally would prefer a hybrid vehicle as I am still skeptical to rely solely on electricity as range and available charging stations remain a concern. Nice to see that Goldman Sachs agrees with my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI Found this blog very interesting. Personally, I am not a big fan of electrical cars so it will be interesting to see how the sales will actually look over the next couple of years with goldman sachs expecting them to drop in this way. I don't think they will drop as much as they expect but I guess we will see.
ReplyDeleteInteresting read. I am not completely sold on the electric car, but a hybrid version would be the first step. I believe the hybrid car will continue to grow in popularity and I can see where these projections would occur.
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